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 4. ONLINE OXYGEN (part xiv)
Ah, the Online Revolution, the mega-trend that keeps on giving, one that single-handedly dominates the 'connecting sphere'. While Web 2.0 has already single-handledly created young brands that are now bigger and more valuable (at least on paper) than many an old economy stalwart, Web 3.0 and 4.0 and 5.0 guarantee enough motion for this innovation-orgasm to continue uninterrupted for years to come. Five years ago, we introduced ONLINE OXYGEN as the engine behind all this excitement: control-craving consumers needing online access as much as they need oxygen.
Fast forward to 2008, when we would need a thousand pages/screens to highlight every noteworthy online sub-trend and Big Idea to watch; the Joosts and Androids and Spores and ordering burgers in Seoul by RFID and the hundreds of yet-unknown start-ups that are about to make an appearance on TechCrunch. So instead, we'll look at a few developments that will spread and encourage ONLINE OXYGEN even further in the next few years to come.
 If there's one device that's going to introduce another few hundred million people to the online world, it's the phone. And yes, initiatives like Google's Android and WiMax and so on are definitely going to speed things up. We know this is not a new insight, and nor will it happen overnight in 2008, but if you're inclined to look beyond 2008, consider this:
Right now, there are 2.7 billion mobile phones in use.
- The number of worldwide mobile phone users is expected to grow to approximately 3.3 billion in 2011. The Asia-Pacific region is expected to account for 47.9% of global subscribers by 2011.
- Globally, nearly 1 in 3 mobile subscribers will use a mobile broadband connection by 2012. This will represent over 1 billion users.
(Sources: Juniper, EITO, MIC, Strategy Analytics.)
Sometimes, the Next Big Thing can be right under your nose. Consider the online riches to be reaped in 2008 from... ecommerce! Sure, it's been around for years and years, but prepare for a forceful 'sequel'. After all, never before have so many consumers been willing to overcome security threats, still shockingly bad (or boring) design, and delivery screwups. In other words, 2008 could be a goldmine for smart e-tailers, who, if they get their act together, could make millions and millions of pounds that are impatiently waiting to be spent by web-savvy consumers around the world.
So in 2008, spend blood, sweat and tears on improving your ecommerce presence; the pay-off will be immediate, and far more substantial than investing in Web 2.0 me-toos!
We'll let the numbers do (some of) the talking:
Some very recent UK holiday spending numbers: online retail spending hit a record £370m on 'Cyber Monday', (10 December 2007). The spend figure for the last three months of the year hit £17.6bn an increase of 82% on 2006. All in all, ecommerce in the UK is expected to reap sales of £53.36 billion this year, representing a 33% gain over 2006.
Forrester estimates that in the US, almost USD 400 billion of store sales — or 16% of total retail sales — are directly influenced by the web as consumers research products online and purchase them offline. This will expand at a 17% compounded annual growth rate over the next five years, resulting in more than USD 1 trillion of store sales by 2012.
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